Bias

I just wrote a paper for my OB class on the psychological biases that contributed to the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the US. (Wow, sounds fancy when I put it that way.) No, I'm not going to paste my paper here. But reading up for it got me thinking about how we all harbor biases without consciously realizing it.

Off the top of my head, the biases I acted out this past week -

Availability bias, where we only consider available information:

For a global market research project, I needed specific information and spent hours googling and browsing the company library website for data on different countries. I only found information for one country so I told my manager I was going to make that a sample case and extrapolate for neighboring countries. A colleague overheard me, and asked if I'd thought of calling up the library researchers. I hadn't (I was new to research projects). I dropped them a line and a day later I had a comprehensive and exhaustive database of information from them. I just needed to ask the experts.

Confirmation bias, where we tend to favor information that confirms our preconceptions:
Extreme celebrity worship (think fasting, self-immolation, sacrifices, building dedicated temples) is a common practice in India. It has been a sore point with me ever since I can remember because I've never looked up to any screen personality and cannot fathom how anyone else can practice such extreme adulation. I have steadfastly refused to watch any movie starring one of India's biggest superstars simply because I don't care for the craze. I smirked when I heard that in his latest movie he (at the age of 60+) is paired with a gorgeous young actress. I sighed when I read that fans were planning to 'bathe' the movie reel and posters in 100s of gallons of milk.  'Crazy', I muttered.Some of my friends implored me to watch the first show with them to understand the mania, but I refused.
Why? How can I be so judgmental when I don't know anything about the actor, his acting, his attitude towards the crowd mania for him...anything at all? Just from what I selectively read/heard about him? That, I realized today is confirmation bias. Perhaps I should go watch that movie after all.

Overconfidence/Optimism Bias:
I was given a new project yesterday. My manager's boss wanted an estimate of when I would have something for initial review and I told my manager "COB Friday". It was Wednesday morning and my manager looked at me in surprise and asked whether it wasn't too short a timeline. I said I knew where to find the market data so I just needed to get some data from engineering. My manager pointed out that I'd need to export and process the market information and that I may not get prompt responses from engineering. I then changed my response to COB Monday. Looking back, I've done this more than once before, only I didn't know it was a habit with me until now.

Social proofing (herding effect), where we accept something because others like us approve of it :

So after last Saturday's class, I told my carpool on the ride home that I was going to start working on the homework the next day. Two of them immediately pooh-poohed the idea and said they were giving themselves free Sundays. Guess what, I followed them. (And lived to regret it, but that's another post.)

Baby Bias, where you trust and like someone because they have a cute baby:
Neighbors who I had walked past without acknowledging for the past many months recently popped out an angelic baby and suddenly I feel like they're family. I smile broadly when we meet in the elevator, we discuss my work and their lives as I gush over the baby and I actually time myself to work hoping I'll run into them.

Okay, I made that last one up. But I'm sure it falls under some category of social bias! 

Time Management - Fail

In an attempt to be more efficient, I tried out a web service that logs the time I spend on various websites. Yesterday I saw the weekly report and was *shocked* to find that I'd spent an average of 2 hours (mostly past 4pm..hmm) each day on Facebook. Shame on me. So I decided to do something about it. I installed this software called Stay Focused and proceeded to set my allowed time for the entire day to 20 minutes. (Yes, very ambitious.) As you can expect, around 3pm, with one minute left for the software to block the site, I desperately rushed to change the setting to allow me 60 minutes.
This is the ensuing conversation I had with the SF software.

SF: You have one minute left, you're not trying to cheat are you?
Me: Proceed. (as opposed to the other given option - "You're right, I changed my mind.")
SF: Seriously, don't do it. You must stay focused. Do you still want to proceed?
Me: Yes.
SF: What's the point really? I'm supposed to help you be more efficient. Are you sure want to go on?
Me: Yes.
SF: Have you no shame?
Me: No.
SF: I can't help feeling our relationship isn't working. You're not listening to me. I'm afraid this may end things between us. Are you okay with that?
Me: Yes.
SF: I can't believe you said Yes.
Me: Proceed.
SF: Fine. But just so you know, if you click yes again it may cause a thermonuclear reaction that will kill millions and orphan many children. Do you still want to proceed?
Me: Yes.
SF: I'm telling your mom!

And then my settings were finally updated but SF wasn't done yet. A new tab popped up on my screen - http://www.sas.calpoly.edu/asc/ssl/procrastination.html.

After that, I didn't need to actually log on to Facebook for a break. I had already been thoroughly entertained. :)

Update: A number of readers asked me about the tracking/blocking services I mentioned in the post. You can find the tracking site here - http://www.rescuetime.com/. It's pretty cool. Even tracks offline time spent on Excel, Powerpoint, Outlook, etc.
The blocking feature is a Google Chrome extension - https://chrome.google.com/extensions/detail/laankejkbhbdhmipfmgcngdelahlfoji. I'm sure there are tricks for other browsers as well, I just haven't looked them up yet. Good luck with productivity now. :)

I'm feeling lucky..

Why is it so cold in the midwest and SO hot in the west today? What is that song I heard on the radio that goes, "Swear I've seen you before, I think I remember those eyes, eyes,eyes.."? What are those pretty long stemmed flowers that wave at me against the clear sky on the freeway ramp? Should I watch Wall Street? How hard is it for an adult to learn to swim? What does bootstrapping mean in the business context? What did my friend mean by "muy bien"? How does one counter caffeine related acidity? What is netvibes? Where exactly is Casablanca? Is the attention span of a goldfish really 3 seconds? What is the difference between attention span and memory span?

All the above questions came to mind today as part of work, conversations, IMs, while driving, or simply out of the blue. Luckily, I have a very reliable and super efficient go-to person for everything I could ever want to know. Anything and everything.

Happy 12th birthday dearest Google!

Stuff I learned this weekend

- I am a worry wart. On Friday night I agonized that my phone would shut down and not wake me up at 6am and that my carpool would leave for school without me. I must buy an old fashioned alarm clock.
- I have forgotten how to take notes on paper. My handwriting has become a free flowing scrawl.
- I couldn't recollect much from any paper I read before Wednesday.
- But, I have a creepily photographic memory for peoples' updates on Facebook. Thrice during casual conversations, I had to bite back "Yes, I saw that on Facebook."
- I clearly remember the first letter of peoples' names but nothing else. Hence I mistakenly referred to three Js as John and two Bs as Brian yesterday. You'd think I'd learn after the first couple times.
- I can consume copious amounts of caffeine, be wide awake, and still yawn in a class. From the first row.
- I will eat raw vegetables if I'm hungry enough i.e. after all the cookies and cereal bars provided have been exhausted.
- I am a grad student at heart. I was just as excited about free pizza as I used to be during poorer school days.
- I will find any excuse to put off starting the next assignment. Case in point, this blog post.

First day of classes done!

It is Sunday morning and I'm feeling surprisingly refreshed despite the loooong day yesterday. Here's a recap.

7am-9am : Drove up to school with three other classmates.

9am-930am : The school provided an impressive complimentary breakfast spread for all sections. (Well, I think I'm paying for that somewhere in my massive tuition bill.)

930am-1245pm : Data and Decisions (otherwise called the Statistics course).
We had been asked to read up the chapters on probability before class. I planned to get around to it in the car ride, but then the professor emailed that he wouldn't cold call anyone on Day1, so that plan flew out the car window :)
Prof. M is funny, seems easy-going and knows his stuff. He started teaching probability with the interesting history of why it began to be studied. History in a math class was a first for me and I appreciated it. The rest of the class was a slow ramp up to probability concepts but I fully expect it to speed up from next class.

1245pm-145pm : Lunch break (where the school doesn't provide lunch).
There was a kick-off meeting for the Entrepreneurship Association so a bunch of us attended that. ( I heard there was also an interviewing skills workshop at the same time but the EA provided free pizza...)

145pm-2pm : I gleefully discovered that the FEMBA lounge has fancy coffee machines which had options for lattes, espressos, mochas, cappuccino etc. Sadly, the machine broke down just when I was trying to get my fix. Luckily there was fresh coffee and more snacks laid out when we got back to the classroom.

2pm -515pm: Organizational Behavior.
Prof. B partly grades us on classroom participation so I was worried about dozing off. They've assigned us fixed seating positions alphabetically and as luck would have it, I'm on the first row, right in front of the teacher's podium. Great. Fortunately, the class was pretty engaging, especially the part where we had a very entertaining and heated in-class auction for a $20 bill that ended with two classmates owing the teacher $80 each. This NYT article explains exactly how the escalation of commitment happened.

545pm-645pm: Anderson Toastmasters meeting.
We were greeted by the VP of the club (FEMBA'10) with the words, "Welcome FEMBA '13. Sorry I don't look as enthusiastic as you guys. That's what happens once you've been beaten on the the head with GAP (Global Access Program - it's like a thesis project in the final year)".  Ouch.
The meeting was fun, we got to hear a few speeches and evaluations and some of us may consider joining the club.

7pm-900pm: FEMBA meetup/happy hour at South. (Celebrity spotting - Cuba Gooding Jr. at the bar.)
Quick dinner at Rubios.

9pm-11pm: Drive back home. I'm very thankful for having a carpool gang (more on them later) because I sure as hell wouldn't have managed the drive alone.

Overall, very fun day that went by really quickly. I'm just amazed I was able to sit through two 3-hour long lectures. It's been a while. :)
For next week, we have a handful of papers to read, a movie to watch, an assignment to write up, and an online quiz to submit before Saturday. I'm just glad there are 279 others with my workload. Misery loves company ;)

Reason #43 why I miss my former room-mate(s).

I picked up random groceries on my way back from work. This is what I found in my bags when I got home.

1. Milk
2. Bananas
3. Cereal
4. Bran muffins (some mornings I don't feel like cereal.)
5. Granola bars (I may get hungry during class.)
6. Frozen veggie burgers (I may be too tired to cook after work/gym/class/studying.)
7. Bread (for the burgers)
8. Gingersnap cookies (taste awesome with chai, will ensure I don't finish the box within a week this time.)
9. Feta cheese (they taste good on salads! Umm, no other salad ingredient bought.)
10. Canned soup

Hmmmm. No vegetables, no fruit (other than bananas) and all processed foods. Until last week I was regularly cooking daals, curries, rice dishes, pastas, hakka noodles, thai curries, and making salads, panzanella, smoothies and soups from scratch. Sigh. Hello again student life.

Speaking of food, favorite email comment of the day from a former roommate and close friend - Good luck for school tomorrow! I wish I could pack you some lunch in a box and wave you bye =)


:):)

Fear of embarrassment - conquered!

"When you get the choice to sit it out or dance, I hope you dance." 

- from one of my favorite songs, by Lee Ann Womack.

I would like to live by those lines but sometimes, just sometimes, I get an attack of shyness. I am fairly confident and extroverted for the most part, but there are certain situations where I'll take a backseat and become reserved. It is almost always in scenarios where there's a potential chance of embarrassing myself. Like getting up on stage for the improvisation session during orientation week. I'm sad to admit that I was among the very few people who chose not to participate for a round of improv.  I was terrified of blanking out or saying the wrong word or simply being unfunny. Needless to say, I started regretting my decision exactly one hour after the session ended.

That's why, when asked if I'd like to participate in a surprise flash mob sequence for my company's anniversary celebrations, I readily agreed. The plan was that we flash mobbers would be mingling in the crowd until the music began. We would start casually swinging to the music and then suddenly break into choreographed steps with the professional dancers.

To be honest, everything about the plan made me anxious. Right from the part where we start dancing in the crowd, up until when we finish the sequence on stage in front of 10,000+ people including all our executives. There couldn't possibly be a worse situation where I could make a fool of myself. I had visions of forgetting my steps, tripping up on stage, or worse - tripping up other people in the crowd! A friend who was part of the plan sent me this before the event - ‘Nervous? In 5 billion years the sun will burn out and nothing you did will matter. Feel better?’  Mmph, thanks Alex!

But I'm happy to report that yesterday, I did it! No fiasco and no injuries, just a whole lot of fun. I even got rewarded with VIP access  for my participation which meant front row seats to the Dave Matthews band, VIP lounge, open bar and hobnobbing with executives. Not a bad deal, huh? :)

We're not being pretentious, we're networking!

Sometime last month -

It is a class of '12 and '13 FEMBA networking event at a downtown lounge. It also happens to be the night of a bachelorette party and a high school reunion so the place is chaotic. I walk in with a couple of girlfriends and start looking around for familiar faces when an NDS (nice-looking but drunk stranger) suddenly grabs my arm.

NDS: "Be my date tonight and let's go make new friends!"

If I weren't caught so off-guard I would never have let him drag me away but the next thing I know, we're in a crowd of people and NDS puts his arm around me and starts talking to a friendly looking couple.

NDS: "Heeeyy good to meet you both! How's the night going?"

At this point I'm squirming and trying to get away but his grip is tight and I don't want to create a scene.

Friendly couple: "We're great! How about you guys? Where are you from?"

NDS: "We're great too!We're from around here and looking to make new friends!"

Friendly couple: "We're here with our MBA friend. Are you here for that party too?Where do you work?"

NDS: "I studied sports medicine but we don't wanna talk about jobs and careers okay?"

Me (finally struggling free): "Actually, I do want to talk about it. But I need to go find my friends so if you'll all excuse me...."

NDS: "Yes, let's get out of here. Such a pretentious crowd! Asking me right away about my job and stuff. Damn these MBAs!"

Me (grinning): "Yeah, I can see why you think that's pretentious. And Oh!, I'm with that crowd. So I think this is where we say goodbye."

Don't feel too bad for the NDS. I believe he had a grand time with the bachelorette party later that evening ;)

Odyssey

odyssey n. , pl. , -seys . An extended adventurous voyage or trip. An intellectual or spiritual quest: an odyssey of discovery.


The Leadership Odyssey we went through during the LF week certainly lived up to its moniker. We were divided into groups of 18 and taken through a series of intellectual and physical tasks that tested our skills and mental strength many times over. I won't elaborate on all the tasks here, but a couple of them really stand out and I feel I must mention them.


THE POLE:
We were taken to a shaded corner of the field and asked to put on harnesses and helmets. At this point I wasn't sure what we were expected to do but I noticed a trapeze swinging high up and I was starting to get a tad nervous. In the next few minutes, after we were told what we had to do, I was not just a tad nervous but positively chattering with fear. Turns out, we were expected to scale up the 40-feet high pole, STAND on top of it, turn around 180 degrees and then LEAP out to catch the trapeze! For a minute I thought it was a joke. You know, maybe they were recording my reaction or something. But then reality hit me as I watched the first of my group mates go for it. It was harrowing to even watch the others go through it. Until then I had only heard the expression "knees shaking in fear" but that day I saw it and I felt it. And when the knees shake the entire damn pole shakes. And you're STILL expected to go through with it. 


I yelled encouragement to all my mates who went before me. "You can do it!", "Remember you're harnessed, so you can't fall!", "Don't look down, look at the trees!". 


And then it was my turn. I scaled up the pole quickly enough, but when I got to the top, I froze. There was barely enough room on top for my two feet! Also, how does one stand up in that situation with nothing to hold on to?! And I was waaaay above the ground! All the words of encouragement I'd shouted simply flew out of my head and before I realized it, my knees were shaking and the pole was dancing. I refused to stand up when the pole was still wobbling but the instructor shouted up at me,"The balance is in your body and your mind. The pole won't stop shaking until you calm down. Put your hand on your knee and stand up." I didn't want to do it. My mind and body both rebelled. I just wanted to get the hell off that pole. I looked at the trees in my line of view but it only reminded me about how high up I was. The next few seconds were a blur as I gritted my teeth and somehow managed to stand up. That was it. I didn't have it in me to slowly turn around. So I simply swung around in one swift motion and lunged for the trapeze. Of course I didn't catch it. But at least I jumped. And I couldn't have done it without all that encouragement from below.


What was the whole point of this exercise you ask? Well, I'm not sure but it was something about facing your greatest challenge and getting through it. Mind over body. Or vice versa. 


RIVER CROSSING:
My heart rate had just about returned to normal when we were taken to this task. Two people scale up ladders side by side and stand on parallel ropes facing each other. The ropes are arm distance apart to start with and then diverge. The task was to walk sideways across the ropes to the other end, while leaning over and pushing off on each others' shoulders for support. This was a less frightening but way more physically challenging task. I experienced the knee-shake again, but my partner AH was wonderfully calm and she got us through most of it. Due to the divergence it was hard to judge how much to lean over and push and I kept worrying that I'd push AH off. 


Me: "OMG this is hard, my rope is shaking too much!"
AH: "It's okay. Don't look down. Look at me. Push me more!"
Me: "Okay I'm not looking down but I'm still nervous and my arms hurt!"
AH: "Talk to me. Don't think about it. So, tell me about your family. Any siblings?"
Me: "Whaa?!" 


The surprise question actually managed to calm me down and we got through a decent distance while chatting about family. Props to AH! :)


Both the activities taught me a lot about myself, my strengths and weaknesses. As a bonus, I met wonderful people who I hope to continue being friends with. I realize the Odyssey isn't over. It's only just begun. And I think I'm ready for it. Next time, I'll catch that trapeze ;)

Leadership Foundations

The 5 day orientation for the FEMBA program was everything it was hyped to be. Intense, exhausting, challenging and very, very enjoyable.We had to take a few days off from work (and make our arrangements for accommodation in LA,) but I consider it vacation time put to excellent use.

LF highlights :
- 4 sections with a total of 280 students for the class of 2013, with each section having a dedicated professor for the duration of our stay.
- Catered breakfast, lunch and dinner where we got to network with fellow classmates from diverse industries, cultures, and educational backgrounds. (+ Decadent desserts with every meal!)
- Leadership lessons, classroom discussions and keynote talks. (We had some 15 papers to pre-read for the classes. Sign of things to come?)
- Student-initiated happy hours after 12 hour sessions at school, stumbling back to our rooms to read for the next day, crashing at wee hours and waking up in time for the 7am breakfast. Rinse, repeat.
- Improv comedy coaching and side-splitting improv sessions in the main auditorium.
- A day long outdoors session called the Leadership Odyssey (my absolute favorite part!)
- Mount Everest simulation - one of the many group activities. This one tested our decision making skills and scored us for successfully battling and navigating various adversities during the climb.
- A final written exam on the last evening followed by cocktail reception. (Never been less refreshed before a test!)

A crazy, unforgettable week in every sense. Hopefully the rest of the ride is just as thrilling and rewarding. :)

Action, Reaction

Me: "So I'm going back to weekend school for my MBA."

Parents and sister: "So proud of you! You're gonna rock!"
Colleagues: "Good for you!"
Hang-out buddies: "Cool but why do you need another degree? This means we won't ever see you at weekend activities!"
Close friends : "Wow, that's awesome. Maybe you'll meet some great guy at the program! :)"
Other relatives : "WHAT! When will you ever get married??"
......