Thursday, September 30, 2010

Bias

I just wrote a paper for my OB class on the psychological biases that contributed to the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the US. (Wow, sounds fancy when I put it that way.) No, I'm not going to paste my paper here. But reading up for it got me thinking about how we all harbor biases without consciously realizing it.

Off the top of my head, the biases I acted out this past week -

Availability bias, where we only consider available information:
For a global market research project, I needed specific information and spent hours googling and browsing the company library website for data on different countries. I only found information for one country so I told my manager I was going to make that a sample case and extrapolate for neighboring countries. A colleague overheard me, and asked if I'd thought of calling up the library researchers. I hadn't (I was new to research projects). I dropped them a line and a day later I had a comprehensive and exhaustive database of information from them. I just needed to ask the experts.

Confirmation bias, where we tend to favor information that confirms our preconceptions:
Extreme celebrity worship (think fasting, self-immolation, sacrifices, building dedicated temples) is a common practice in India. It has been a sore point with me ever since I can remember because I've never looked up to any screen personality and cannot fathom how anyone else can practice such extreme adulation. I have steadfastly refused to watch any movie starring one of India's biggest superstars simply because I don't care for the craze. I smirked when I heard that in his latest movie he (at the age of 60+) is paired with a gorgeous young actress. I sighed when I read that fans were planning to 'bathe' the movie reel and posters in 100s of gallons of milk.  'Crazy', I muttered.Some of my friends implored me to watch the first show with them to understand the mania, but I refused.
Why? How can I be so judgmental when I don't know anything about the actor, his acting, his attitude towards the crowd mania for him...anything at all? Just from what I selectively read/heard about him? That, I realized today is confirmation bias. Perhaps I should go watch that movie after all.

Overconfidence/Optimism Bias:
I was given a new project yesterday. My manager's boss wanted an estimate of when I would have something for initial review and I told my manager "COB Friday". It was Wednesday morning and my manager looked at me in surprise and asked whether it wasn't too short a timeline. I said I knew where to find the market data so I just needed to get some data from engineering. My manager pointed out that I'd need to export and process the market information and that I may not get prompt responses from engineering. I then changed my response to COB Monday. Looking back, I've done this more than once before, only I didn't know it was a habit with me until now.

Social proofing (herding effect), where we accept something because others like us approve of it :
So after last Saturday's class, I told my carpool on the ride home that I was going to start working on the homework the next day. Two of them immediately pooh-poohed the idea and said they were giving themselves free Sundays. Guess what, I followed them. (And lived to regret it, but that's another post.)

Baby Bias, where you trust and like someone because they have a cute baby:
Neighbors who I had walked past without acknowledging for the past many months recently popped out an angelic baby and suddenly I feel like they're family. I smile broadly when we meet in the elevator, we discuss my work and their lives as I gush over the baby and I actually time myself to work hoping I'll run into them.

Okay, I made that last one up. But I'm sure it falls under some category of social bias! 

8 comments:

  1. "gorgeous young actress" really ;)

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  2. Dare you become a Rajni fan! I will rally to have you barred (from somewhere!) :)

    Is there a term for believing something just because you hear it on television or read it on Wikipedia?
    Television and sites like Wikipedia are maintained by people, some of whom have devious interests and use the media to propagate what may not always be the complete and accurate truth.

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  3. Lol! I must say though, the confirmation bias can be seen so often...people will listen or accept only those views which confirm their beliefs...they rarely look for any evidence to disconfirm the views. Social proofing sounds a lot like peer pressure! :P

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  4. Baby bias actually does exist. I've experienced it when I have my baby in hand. People DO smile in the elevators.

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  5. @ Raju - Aishwarya Rai is definitely gorgeous, and compared to Rajinikanth, she's young!

    @ Tina - No fear my dear. They can drag me to the water but can't make me drink.
    And yes, there is a term for blind belief - being gullible :P. I'm right there with you.

    @Psych - I think another way of looking at confirmation bias is that it's the "whatever makes me feel good/better" approach. And in many cases, that's actually the better route to take.

    @mario - Haha, see?!I'm sure I can find more samples to support my hypothesis. Gotta go get that term patented!

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  6. Am sure the list isn't complete!:). We have some common ones we should work on:).
    Am trying to be sensitive and not very closed, but can't help citing an eg: Was on call with Air-India customer service requesting some travel-change, and imagine my post-call reaction!!--Phew!!

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  7. bathing a movie poster with 100 Gallons of Milk! And this is in a country where cows are worshipped and thousands starve every day.. I am just out of words (sorry didn't mean to steal our blog)

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  8. Shailee - Haha, yes plenty other biases but these were just what I reacted to last week:) I totally get what you mean by the AI customer service reaction!

    Surah - I know, pathetic isn't it? I'm willing to bet that a lot of that crowd was from the poor sections. I fail to understand what makes them act this way. One possible explanation is that they need something/someone/some fantasy to look up to, to escape the realities of their daily lives?

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